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Pregame

Alabama vs LSU Prediction, Odds & Picks

Alabama visits LSU in Week 10 with both sides coming off extended rest.

By the OddsListing desk · Published

ALA

6-2

3:30 PM ET

LSU

6-2

Scores from the ESPN board

At a glance

Pregame line

Spread
ALA +5.5 (−110)LSU −5.5 (−110)
Total
O 52.5 (−110)U 52.5 (−110)
Moneyline
ALA +185 (34%)LSU −225 (66%)

Our lean

LSU -5.5 (-110)Why

DraftKings via ESPN · line at publication · Nov 3, 3:40 PM ET

DraftKings via ESPN · Pregame line · as of 5:33 PM ET. % = no-vig win share (hold removed; arithmetic, not a forecast).

Week 10 regular season action features Alabama traveling to face LSU at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge.

Our lean

Spread

LSU -5.5 (-110)

DraftKings via ESPN · line at publication, Nov 3, 3:40 PM ET

Break-even at -110: 52.4% · Market, vig removed: LSU -5.5 50.0% · LSU to win 66.4%

LSU posts 510.0 total yards per game and allows just 16.0 points per game compared with Alabama's 411.9 yards gained and 21.3 points allowed. Those edges, combined with the home designation at Tiger Stadium, point toward LSU covering the spread.

The case against

Alabama's 38.3 points per game and 260.0 passing yards per game could keep the contest within the number, particularly after the extra rest both teams received following their most recent games.

What our lean is, and isn’t

Alabama outlook

Alabama enters with a 6-2 record after results that include a 31-20 win over Texas A&M on Oct 24, a 26-10 loss at Tennessee on Oct 17 and a 20-17 loss to Georgia on Oct 10. The team averages 38.3 points scored and 21.3 allowed per game while posting 411.9 total yards gained and 330.4 allowed.

Passing leader Keelon Russell has thrown for 2,057 yards with rushing leader Daniel Hill at 332 yards and receiving leader Lotzeir Brooks at 488 yards. Alabama most recently played on Oct 24 and therefore sits in an extra rest spot ahead of this contest.

The extra rest provides additional preparation time that could help the offense maintain its 260.0 passing yards per game average when facing LSU.

LSU outlook

LSU carries a 6-2 record after a 38-17 win at Auburn on Oct 24, a 31-0 win over Mississippi State on Oct 17 and a 35-34 overtime loss at Kentucky on Oct 10. The Tigers average 40.1 points scored and 16.0 allowed while gaining 510.0 total yards and allowing 258.1.

Passing leader Sam Leavitt has 2,173 yards, rushing leader Dilin Jones has 657 yards and receiving leader Jackson Harris has 634 yards with 7 touchdowns. LSU also played most recently on Oct 24 and therefore occupies an extra rest spot.

The extra rest may allow LSU to sustain its 318.0 passing yards per game and 192.0 rushing yards per game against Alabama's defense.

Key matchup

LSU's 510.0 total yards per game and 192.0 rushing yards per game stand against Alabama's 330.4 total yards allowed and 108.0 rushing yards allowed per game, an area that could shape the outcome given both teams' extra rest.

The market

DraftKings lists LSU -5.5 at -110 and Alabama +5.5 at -110 with the total at 52.5 and both sides -110. The spread opened at LSU -4 and the total opened at 54.5; both have remained unchanged since the line was first recorded. The vig-free split on the spread and total sits at 50.0 percent for each side while the break-even rate at -110 stands at 52.4 percent.

Written with AI assistance from ESPN data and checked by a separate automated fact-check against that data. Lines as of Nov 3, 3:40 PM ET from DraftKings; they move — confirm the price before you bet. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. How we write previews

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Market read

DraftKings via ESPN

Pregame line · as of 5:33 PM ET

MarketNowOpenedChangeNo-vig %HoldAs of
ALA spread+5.5 −110+5.5 −108−2¢50.0%4.8%5:33 PM ET
LSU spread−5.5 −110−5.5 −112+2¢50.0%
Over52.5 −11052.5 −105−5¢50.0%4.8%5:33 PM ET
Under52.5 −11052.5 −115+5¢50.0%
ALA ML+185+185Unchanged33.6%4.3%5:33 PM ET
LSU ML−225−225Unchanged66.4%

Now: numbers as published on ESPN at the time shown, a snapshot, not a live price. Opened: the first DraftKings line we recorded, Nov 2, 12:20 AM ET. Change: points for spreads and totals, cents for prices (−110 to −120 is −10¢).

No-vig % removes the book's margin from each market's prices, and hold is that margin: arithmetic on these numbers, not a forecast or a betting-split feed.

Where to bet this game

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Recent form

Alabama Crimson Tide

  • W 31-20 vs TA&M · Oct 24
  • L 26-10 @ TENN · Oct 17
  • L 20-17 vs UGA · Oct 10
  • W 56-23 @ MSST · Oct 3
  • W 49-18 vs SC · Sep 26

LSU Tigers

  • W 38-17 @ AUB · Oct 24
  • W 31-0 vs MSST · Oct 17
  • L 35-34 OT @ UK · Oct 10
  • W 63-14 vs MCN · Oct 3
  • W 35-6 vs TA&M · Sep 26

Season leaders

Alabama Crimson Tide

  • Passing Yards: Keelon Russell — 148/221, 2,057 YDS, 15 TD, 5 INT
  • Rushing Yards: Daniel Hill — 71 CAR, 332 YDS, 4 TD
  • Receiving Yards: Lotzeir Brooks — 29 REC, 488 YDS, 1 TD

LSU Tigers

  • Passing Yards: Sam Leavitt — 180/256, 2,173 YDS, 17 TD, 8 INT
  • Rushing Yards: Dilin Jones — 149 CAR, 657 YDS, 6 TD
  • Receiving Yards: Jackson Harris — 36 REC, 634 YDS, 7 TD

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