The regular season continues Wednesday when the Mavericks visit the Spurs at Frost Bank Center.
Our lean
Total
Under 226.5 (-115)
DraftKings via ESPN · line at publication, Nov 4, 10:20 AM ET
Break-even at -115: 53.5% · Market, vig removed: Under 226.5 51.1%
The line has moved to Under 225.5 (-108), DraftKings via ESPN, Nov 4, 11:40 AM ET. This lean was written at Under 226.5 (-115).
The total line has moved down three points since opening, and both teams have one day of rest after Monday games.
Those elements point toward the under at the current number.
The case against
The Spurs last five games against this total produced four overs, and the Mavericks season averages sit near the posted line, which could push scoring higher than the adjusted total suggests.
Mavericks outlook
The Mavericks enter with a 4-3 record after dropping their most recent outing 115-100 to the Sacramento Kings.
They average 112.0 points scored and 112.3 allowed while shooting 48 percent from the field. Cooper Flagg leads the team with 25.2 points and 6.5 assists per game, and P.J. Washington tops rebounds at 7.7. Players listed out include Max Christie, Santi Aldama, Tarik Biberovic, Dereck Lively II and Sergio de Larrea. The club played Monday and has one day off before this game.
Multiple absences and the quick turnaround limit available rotation options for the road side.
Spurs outlook
The Spurs sit at 5-2 and have won their last five games, most recently defeating the Utah Jazz 119-97.
They score 117.6 points per game and allow 108.3 while shooting 46 percent from the field and 35 percent from three. Victor Wembanyama leads with 25.7 points and 10.7 rebounds per game, and De'Aaron Fox leads assists at 6.4. Tobias Harris is out. The team played Monday and also has one day off.
The five-game win streak and strong scoring margin suggest the home side enters with momentum.
Key matchup
The Spurs season-long edge in points scored and allowed combined with the Mavericks multiple absences points to San Antonio controlling the interior and transition play.
The market
DraftKings lists Spurs -12.5 at -103 and Mavericks +12.5 at -117 with the total at 226.5. The total opened at 229.5 and has moved down three points. The spread has stayed at Spurs -12.5 while the moneyline shifted from Mavericks +502 to +443 and Spurs -700 to -597.
Written with AI assistance from ESPN data and checked by a separate automated fact-check against that data. Lines as of Nov 4, 10:20 AM ET from DraftKings; they move — confirm the price before you bet. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. How we write previews
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