NFLSep 26
Raiders Rise, Chargers Slide as Early NFL Playoff Outlook Shifts
Las Vegas is emerging as an AFC sleeper, while San Francisco has strengthened its postseason position and Tampa Bay faces an early uphill climb.
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Raiders build momentum in AFC West
The opening stretch of the 2026 NFL season has produced sharply different playoff outlooks for the Raiders and Chargers as teams pursue places in the 14-team postseason. Under new coach Klint Kubiak, Las Vegas is among eight unbeaten teams. The Raiders won their opening two games by at least 12 points apiece, something they had not accomplished since 2002. Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins delivered consecutive three-touchdown performances for the first time in his career. A victory over the Chargers helped lift Las Vegas from No. 30 in the preseason power-index rankings to No. 24, giving the Raiders an early case as an AFC playoff sleeper.
Chargers face a difficult recovery
The Chargers’ projected postseason probability has plunged from 67.7% before the season to below 10%. A home loss to the Cardinals first knocked that figure to 30%, before the defeat against Las Vegas deepened the slide. Those setbacks came in what projected to be their most manageable opening matchups. The road gets harder: Los Angeles faces the league’s toughest schedule from Weeks 3 to 8, with games against the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and Rams around a Week 7 bye.
49ers surge while Buccaneers lose ground
San Francisco has moved to the front of the NFC playoff race. Beating the Rams in Week 1 raised the 49ers’ postseason projection from 62.4% to 93.6%, and a subsequent victory over the Dolphins pushed it higher. Seattle also remains unbeaten with Drew Lock replacing injured quarterback Sam Darnold, while the Rams responded by beating the Giants. Tampa Bay’s outlook is considerably less encouraging. A loss to Cleveland dropped its playoff probability from 45.8% to below 20%, leaving the Buccaneers at 0-2 for the first time since Baker Mayfield arrived in 2023. New Orleans, meanwhile, has a 60% projected chance to win the NFC South after an overtime defeat against Detroit and a victory over Baltimore.
Analysis, not a wagering instruction. Confirm every number on the sportsbook. 21+.
