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Week 4 betting outlook: Ole Miss value and Indiana scoring potential
The Rebels offer an outright-win angle against Florida, while Indiana’s offense and Missouri’s protection stand out as conference matchups sharpen the picture.
By OddsListing wire desk
· 2 min read
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Ole Miss offers an alternative to Florida hype
Florida’s 44-point performance at Auburn strengthened its offensive case, but the defense remains a reason to consider Ole Miss at +125 to win outright. Taking the Rebels at +3 offers a more cautious option. Auburn passed for 271 yards and three touchdowns against the Gators. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss now gets his opportunity after producing against Louisville and LSU. The Rebels have also faced the tougher schedule and surrendered touchdowns on only three of nine opponent red zone possessions. Makhi Frazier is expected back in the backfield. Kewan Lacy remains a game-time decision, making his potential contribution a bonus rather than a foundation for the bet.
Indiana’s team total draws attention
Indiana over 34.5 points provides a way to back the Hoosiers’ offense without relying on the full-game spread against Northwestern. Josh Hoover has opened with 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Indiana is converting 48% of its third downs, while Northwestern ranks 70th nationally in third-down defense. The Hoosiers’ defense could also help the offense by ending Northwestern possessions and creating additional scoring opportunities. Indiana scored 41 against the Wildcats last season, though that result alone is no guarantee of another productive outing.
Missouri’s edge starts up front
Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor brings mobility and explosive-play potential, but Missouri presents a tougher pressure test. The Tigers’ top-15 pass rush could challenge passing production built partly on a small sample of big gains under pressure. At the other end, Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons benefits from a favorable protection matchup. The Tigers rank second in pass protection, while Mississippi State sits in the bottom 10 for pressures and sacks. Those advantages make Missouri worth attention, but price discipline remains essential across the card. Early-season results against weaker opposition can distort evaluations, and a favorable matchup does not make every available line attractive.
Analysis, not a wagering instruction. Confirm every number on the sportsbook. 21+.
