Soccer1 hr ago
xG Trends Show Overachievers and Underachievers in Europe's Top Leagues
A quarter into the 2026-27 season, several clubs sit ahead of or behind their underlying numbers in the Big Five leagues.
· 2 min read
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Clubs With More Points Than Expected
Lazio sit tied atop Serie A after dropping just two points in nine matches despite a league-worst home attendance of 9,515. They have scored 22 goals from 15.5 xG. Atletico Madrid continue their pattern of outperforming their xG differential under their manager, with the gap between goal differential and xG differential reaching 46 percent over recent seasons. Manchester City generated only 2.8 xG in a 5-3 win over Sunderland while allowing 3.6 and still took three points. Borussia Dortmund have allowed just four goals from 7.3 xG in the Bundesliga. Como sit fourth in Serie A after winning two of four matches with a negative xG differential.
Clubs With Fewer Points Than Expected
Nottingham Forest rank fifth in xG differential after creating 13.4 xG and allowing 9.0 yet sit 18th in the table with only six goals from their 13.4 xG. Brest hold second place in Ligue 1 xG differential, including four matches with a +1.9 or better margin, but remain 13th in the standings. Villarreal stand third in LaLiga xG differential while sitting 10th in the table after dropping points in matches with strong underlying numbers. Bournemouth have led more Premier League matches than all but three other sides but have not converted those leads into results matching their xG edge.
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