Week 10 places the Dolphins and Colts in a regular-season game at Lucas Oil Stadium with both clubs looking to improve on poor records after recent defeats.
Our lean
Total
Under 38.5 (-112)
DraftKings via ESPN · line at publication, Nov 11, 2:00 AM ET
Break-even at -112: 52.8% · Market, vig removed: Under 38.5 50.4%
The Dolphins season scoring average of 15.8 points per game and the Colts mark of 20.4 points per game point toward the under. The total has also moved down 2 from its opening mark, aligning with the modest offensive production from both sides.
The case against
Four of the Colts last five games produced combined scores above 38.5, and the Dolphins have seen three of their last five contests exceed the same total, which could keep the game closer to or over the current line.
Dolphins outlook
The Dolphins enter with a 1-7 record and have dropped their last two games, most recently falling 19-9 to the Detroit Lions before losing 24-19 to the New England Patriots. Their season averages show 15.8 points scored and 25.0 allowed per game along with 297.8 total yards gained and 336.4 allowed.
Malik Willis leads the Dolphins in passing yards this season yet sits on injured reserve, leaving the club without its top passer for the trip. The team also lists Zach Sieler on injured reserve while Jaylen Wright and Will Kacmarek remain questionable. Six days separate the Dolphins from their prior outing.
Those absences and the modest offensive output suggest the Dolphins will lean on their ground game led by Ollie Gordon II while facing a Colts defense that has allowed 375.3 total yards per game.
Colts outlook
The Colts sit at 2-7 and have lost their last five contests, including a 27-23 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys followed by a 42-7 loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars. They average 20.4 points scored and 27.7 allowed per game with 307.4 total yards gained and 375.3 allowed.
Jonathan Taylor leads the Colts in rushing while Daniel Jones tops the passing category. Several players including Jalen Travis remain doubtful or questionable, and the club also returns after six days of rest following its most recent game.
The five-game losing streak and defensive yards allowed indicate the Colts may continue to struggle containing opponents even at home.
Key matchup
The Colts rushing attack led by Jonathan Taylor faces a Dolphins defense that has permitted 111.8 rushing yards per game. How effectively the Colts establish the run could dictate the pace and limit opportunities for the Dolphins offense missing its primary passer.
The market
DraftKings lists the spread at Colts -3.5 (-115) and Dolphins +3.5 (-105) after moving from an opening Colts -6.5. The total sits at 38.5 with the over at -108 and under at -112 after declining from an opening 47.5. The moneyline shows Dolphins +160 and Colts -192 after shifting from Dolphins +235 and Colts -290.
Written with AI assistance from ESPN data and checked by a separate automated fact-check against that data. Lines as of Nov 11, 2:00 AM ET from DraftKings; they move — confirm the price before you bet. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. How we write previews
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