The Packers travel to Gillette Stadium for a Week 9 regular-season game against the Patriots on Sunday, Nov 8, 2026, at 4:25 PM ET.
Our lean
Total
Under 46.5 (-105)
DraftKings via ESPN · line at publication, Nov 4, 2:20 AM ET
Break-even at -105: 51.2% · Market, vig removed: Under 46.5 48.9%
The Packers last five games against the total of 46.5 all finished under. Their season scoring and yardage averages sit below the total line while the Patriots recent results include several games under 46.5 as well. The line movement on the spread toward the home side has not altered the total price.
The case against
The Patriots recorded three overs in their last five games against this total while posting season averages of 23.0 points scored and 376.8 total yards gained per game, numbers that exceed those of the Packers and suggest the possibility of a higher scoring contest.
Packers outlook
The Packers enter with a 5-3 record and 2-2 mark on the road. Their most recent results show a win by 8 against the Carolina Panthers on Oct 29, a loss by 3 at the Detroit Lions on Oct 25, a win by 10 against the Dallas Cowboys on Oct 18, a win by 24 against the Chicago Bears on Oct 11 and a win by 3 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Oct 4.
Season averages stand at 21.4 points scored and 20.5 allowed per game along with 341.4 total yards gained and 331.8 allowed. Jordan Love leads in passing yards, MarShawn Lloyd in rushing yards and Christian Watson in receiving yards. Questionable players include Sean Rhyan, Zaire Franklin, Travis Glover and Christian Watson while Micah Parsons is out.
The schedule spot features extra rest with 9 days off after the most recent listed game. That extra rest may allow fuller preparation for the road contest at the venue where the Patriots hold a 3-0 home record.
Patriots outlook
The Patriots also stand at 5-3 overall and remain unbeaten at home. Their last five outcomes include a win by 5 at the Miami Dolphins on Nov 1, a loss by 6 at the Chicago Bears on Oct 22, a win by 7 against the New York Jets on Oct 18, a win by 28 against the Las Vegas Raiders on Oct 11 and a win by 3 at the Buffalo Bills on Oct 4.
They average 23.0 points scored and 20.3 allowed per game with 376.8 total yards gained and 328.1 allowed. Drake Maye leads in passing, Rhamondre Stevenson in rushing and DeMario Douglas in receiving. Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson, A.J. Brown and Gabe Jacas are questionable while Mack Hollins is on injured reserve.
The schedule spot places them in their first home game after the last two listed contests were on the road, potentially aiding comfort at the venue.
Key matchup
The Packers allow 110.9 rushing yards per game while the Patriots gain 123.1 rushing yards per game. How the Patriots ground attack performs against the Packers front may shape the outcome more than other areas given the respective season rushing numbers.
The market
DraftKings lists the Patriots at -3 (-115) and the Packers at +3 (-105) with the total at 46.5. The opening spread was Patriots -1.5 and the line moved 0.5 toward the Patriots. The moneyline sits at Packers +142 and Patriots -170. The total has remained at 46.5 since the first recorded line.
Written with AI assistance from ESPN data and checked by a separate automated fact-check against that data. Lines as of Nov 4, 2:20 AM ET from DraftKings; they move — confirm the price before you bet. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. How we write previews
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