Alabama visits Vanderbilt on Saturday in Week 11 of the regular season at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville.
Our lean
Spread
Alabama -17.5 (-102)
DraftKings via ESPN · line at publication, Nov 13, 12:40 PM ET
Break-even at -102: 50.5% · Market, vig removed: Alabama -17.5 48.3% · Alabama to win 86.8%
Alabama's season averages of 37.4 points scored and 397.8 total yards per game against Vanderbilt's 29.4 points allowed and 359.1 total yards allowed per game point to Alabama covering the spread.
The case against
Vanderbilt posted a 25-23 win in its most recent game and the spread has moved from Alabama -19.5 to -17.5 while the total has dropped from 54.5 to 50.5, narrowing the margin Alabama must win by to cover.
Alabama outlook
Alabama enters with a 7-2 record and most recently won 31-13 at LSU before a 31-20 win over Texas A&M. Earlier results included a 26-10 loss at Tennessee and a 20-17 loss to Georgia. The team averages 37.4 points scored and 20.3 allowed per game along with 397.8 total yards gained and 344.4 allowed.
Passing yards are led by Keelon Russell with 2,263 while Trae'shawn Brown leads rushing with 359 yards. Receiving production is paced by Rico Scott at 501 yards. Alabama has six days since its most recent game.
Those offensive and defensive averages point to continued production on the road against a defense that has allowed 29.4 points per game.
Vanderbilt outlook
Vanderbilt stands at 4-5 and most recently won 25-23 at Mississippi State. Prior outcomes were a 34-17 loss at Kentucky, a 31-21 loss to Arkansas and a 52-17 loss to Ole Miss. The team averages 23.0 points scored and 29.4 allowed per game along with 341.1 total yards gained and 359.1 allowed.
Passing yards are led by Jared Curtis with 1,657 while Sedrick Alexander leads rushing with 333 yards. Receiving production is paced by Junior Sherrill at 747 yards. Vanderbilt has six days since its most recent game and plays its first home game after its last two listed games were on the road.
Those defensive figures suggest continued difficulty containing an offense averaging 37.4 points per game.
Key matchup
Alabama's 37.4 points per game against Vanderbilt's 29.4 points allowed per game stands out as the area most likely to shape the result, given Alabama's 397.8 total yards per game and Vanderbilt's 359.1 total yards allowed per game.
The market
DraftKings lists Alabama -17.5 at -102 and Vanderbilt +17.5 at -118 with the total at 50.5. The opening spread was Alabama -19.5 and the total opened at 54.5. Since the first recorded line the spread has moved from Alabama -18.5 to -17.5 while the total has moved from 52.5 to 50.5.
Written with AI assistance from ESPN data and checked by a separate automated fact-check against that data. Lines as of Nov 13, 12:40 PM ET from DraftKings; they move — confirm the price before you bet. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. How we write previews
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