Week 11 regular season action at Hard Rock Stadium features Duke traveling to face Miami on Saturday, Nov 14, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET in a game broadcast nationally on ABC under sunny 69°F conditions.
Our lean
Total
Under 54.5 (-115)
DraftKings via ESPN · line at publication, Nov 10, 12:20 PM ET
Break-even at -115: 53.5% · Market, vig removed: Under 54.5 51.1%
Duke's last five games against the 54.5 total produced combined scores of 44, 49, 35, 44 and 53, all under the number. That defensive profile, allowing 13.0 points per game, aligns with keeping the combined output below the current total even against Miami's offense.
The case against
Miami's last five games against the 54.5 total produced combined scores of 55, 73, 75, 78 and 54, with four overs, and its 45.0 points per game average could push the total higher if its offense sustains production at home.
Duke outlook
Duke enters with a 7-2 record and has posted three straight wins after its most recent outing, a 41-3 victory at NC State Wolfpack. Earlier results include a 47-2 home win over Boston College Eagles and a 19-16 road win at Virginia Cavaliers.
The team averages 33.0 points scored and 13.0 allowed per game while gaining 425.1 total yards and surrendering 282.1. Walker Eget leads in passing with 1,849 yards, Nate Sheppard in rushing with 1,189 yards and 17 touchdowns, and Jonah Burton in receiving with 360 yards. Six days separate its latest game from this one.
Miami outlook
Miami carries an 8-1 record into its first home game after its last two listed outings took place on the road. Its most recent result was a 31-24 loss at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, following a 38-35 win at North Carolina Tar Heels.
The squad averages 45.0 points scored and 19.2 allowed per game while producing 516.6 total yards and allowing 323.7. Darian Mensah leads in passing with 2,694 yards and 28 touchdowns, Mark Fletcher Jr. in rushing with 514 yards and nine touchdowns, and Malachi Toney in receiving with 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns. Six days separate its latest game from this one.
Key matchup
Miami's passing attack, led by Darian Mensah's 2,694 yards and 28 touchdowns, faces Duke's secondary that has allowed 186.6 passing yards per game. How that unit handles the volume from Miami's 325.3 passing yards per game average shapes the contest's pace and point total.
The market
DraftKings lists Miami -13.5 at -108 and Duke +13.5 at -112, with the total at 54.5. The opening spread sat at Miami -20.5, the total at 55.5, and the moneyline at Duke +950 and Miami -1650. The spread and total have remained unchanged since the first recorded line while the moneyline shifted from Duke +440 and Miami -600.
Written with AI assistance from ESPN data and checked by a separate automated fact-check against that data. Lines as of Nov 10, 12:20 PM ET from DraftKings; they move — confirm the price before you bet. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. How we write previews
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