Week 11 brings Michigan to Autzen Stadium for a regular-season game against Oregon on Saturday, Nov 14, 2026, at 3:30 PM ET.
Our lean
Total
Under 38.5 (-115)
DraftKings via ESPN · line at publication, Nov 12, 12:20 AM ET
Break-even at -115: 53.5% · Market, vig removed: Under 38.5 51.1%
Season scoring rates place Michigan at 19.6 points per game and Oregon at 34.1, yet the total has settled at 38.5 after dropping one point from its first recorded level. Michigan's last five combined scores include three that finished under 38.5 while Oregon's recent games also produced three unders against the same number.
The case against
Oregon's offensive output of 34.1 points per game and 422.0 total yards per game could push the score higher if the Ducks sustain production against a Michigan defense that has allowed 255.3 yards per game, even after the total line moved lower from its opening mark.
Michigan outlook
Michigan enters with a 5-4 record after its most recent outing, a 15-6 loss to Michigan State on Nov 7. The team posted a 28-21 win at Rutgers on Oct 31 before dropping a 13-6 overtime decision to Indiana on Oct 24.
Season averages show Michigan scoring 19.6 points per game while allowing 16.2. The team gains 302.6 total yards per game and surrenders 255.3, with 128.7 rushing yards per game and 100.6 allowed on the ground.
Six days separate the Michigan State game from this contest. Bryce Underwood leads the passing attack while Savion Hiter tops the rushing totals, and recent results have stayed near or below the current total line in three of the last five outings.
Oregon outlook
Oregon arrives at 6-3 after back-to-back wins, most recently a 41-28 victory at Ohio State on Nov 7 followed by a 34-26 result against Northwestern on Oct 31.
The Ducks average 34.1 points scored and 22.1 allowed per game while producing 422.0 total yards and conceding 349.7. Passing yards stand at 285.2 per game with 224.9 allowed, and the rushing game adds 136.8 yards per contest.
Six days of rest follow the Ohio State win. Dylan Raiola leads the passing numbers and Dierre Hill Jr. leads in rushing, with three of Oregon's last five games finishing under the posted total of 38.5.
Key matchup
Oregon's season-long ability to score 34.1 points per game against Michigan's allowance of 16.2 points per game shapes the contest at Autzen Stadium, where the home side's total yardage production of 422.0 faces a Michigan defense that has limited opponents to 255.3 yards per game in recent results.
The market
DraftKings lists Oregon -10.5 at -115 and Michigan +10.5 at -105, with the total at 38.5. The opening spread sat at Oregon -13.5 and the total opened at 53.5 before moving to the current numbers, while the moneyline stands at Michigan +340 and Oregon -440.
Written with AI assistance from ESPN data and checked by a separate automated fact-check against that data. Lines as of Nov 12, 12:20 AM ET from DraftKings; they move — confirm the price before you bet. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. How we write previews
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